Champions League knockout stage scenarios, play-offs, and 2024/25 league table: What's the qualifying point threshold?

The Champions League is shaking things up with a revamped format this season. With the new format comes new challenges for teams aiming to secure a spot in the knockout rounds of the competition. So, what exactly do the teams need to do to qualify for the next stage of the Champions League? Under the new format, teams will compete in a single table format with all clubs playing against each other in the group stage. The top teams from each group will automatically qualify for the knockout rounds, while the teams finishing in second and third place will enter a playoff to determine the final spots in the next round. For teams looking to ensure their place in the knockout stages, consistency will be key. Securing wins and accumulating points in the group stage will be crucial in avoiding the pressure of the playoff round. Teams will need to strategize and adapt to the new format quickly to give themselves the best chance of making it to the next stage of the competition. Overall, the road to the knockout rounds of the Champions League will be challenging, but teams that can perform consistently and rise to the occasion will have a shot at glory in the revamped format of the competition.

Instead of the traditional eight groups of four - with the top two from each group qualifying for the last 16 - a new 'Swiss-style' 36-league format has been introduced this season, with clubs sure to be looking at the mathematics.

The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other to join the top eight teams in that round of the competition.

The bottom 12 teams - from 25th to 36th - will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.

So to avoid an early elimination - how many points do you need? And what about the number needed to skip the play-off round and finish in the top eight?

TrendingChampions League knockout qualification explained

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points from a possible 24 - so five wins and a draw from eight matches, or other combinations - would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which guarantees you a last-16 spot in the new year.

The data also believes 15 points - so five wins from eight games, or other combinations - could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the league phase.

Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws, is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish - so the race to five wins is likely to be the target for the biggest sides.

Who qualifies for Champions League play-offs?

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points - so three wins and a draw, or other combinations - will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

Nine points - so three wins from eight games, or other combinations - could be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.

But just eight points - so two wins and two draws, or other combinations - runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.

So teams will be targeting at least three wins from eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.

2024/25 Champions League table - who is on course to qualify? Arsenal fixtures and results

September 19: Atalanta 0-0 Arsenal

October 1: Arsenal 2-0 PSG

October 22: Arsenal 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk

November 6: Inter Milan 1-0 Arsenal

November 26: Sporting Lisbon 1-5 Arsenal

December 11: Arsenal vs Monaco, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm

January 22: Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm

January 29: Girona vs Arsenal, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 8pm

Aston Villa fixtures and results

September 17: Young Boys 0-3 Aston Villa

October 2: Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Munich

October 22: Aston Villa 2-0 Bologna

November 6: Club Brugge 1-0 Aston Villa

November 27: Aston Villa 0-0 Juventus

December 10: RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa, Red Bull Arena, kick-off 8pm

January 21: AS Monaco vs Aston Villa, Louis II Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm

January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm

Liverpool fixtures and results

September 17: AC Milan 1-3 Liverpool

October 2: Liverpool 2-0 Bologna

October 23: RB Leipzig 0-1 Liverpool

November 5: Liverpool 4-0 Bayer Leverkusen

November 27: Liverpool 2-0 Real Madrid

December 10: Girona vs Liverpool, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 5.45pm

January 21: Liverpool vs Lille, Anfield, kick-off 8pm

January 29: PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool, Philips Stadium, kick-off 8pm

Man City fixtures and results

September 18: Man City 0-0 Inter Milan

October 1: Slovan Bratislava 0-4 Man City

October 23: Man City 5-0 Sparta Prague

November 5: Sporting CP 4-1 Man City

November 26: Man City 3-3 Feyenoord

December 11: Juventus vs Man City, Allianz Stadium, kick-off 8pm

January 22: Paris Saint-Germain vs Man City, Parc des Princes, kick-off 8pm

January 29: Man City vs Club Brugge, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm

Celtic fixtures and results

September 18: Celtic 5-1 Slovan Bratislava

October 1: Borussia Dortmund 7-1 Celtic

October 23: Atalanta 0-0 Celtic

November 5: Celtic 3-1 RB Leipzig

November 27: Celtic 1-1 Club Brugge

December 10: Dinamo Zagreb vs Celtic, Maksimir Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm

January 22: Celtic vs Young Boys, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm

January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm

When are the 2024/25 Champions League league-stage matches?When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?When and where is the 2025 Champions League final?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.