4 compelling reasons why the Thunder are the undisputed frontrunners in the Western Conference

As dominant as the Western Conference is, the Oklahoma City Thunder have risen above the rest. They currently hold a seven-game lead in the loss column as they prepare for a highly anticipated interconference showdown with the top team in the East. The Thunder will face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, in a battle of the two top teams in their respective conferences.

Here are some notes, numbers and film on how the Thunder have dominated the stronger conference …

1. Historically good defense

Through 35 games, the Thunder have allowed just 102.7 points per 100 possessions, 3.6 fewer than any other team and 9.8 fewer than the league average (112.5). Both of those would be the biggest differentials in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

The latter would make the Thunder the best defensive team of the play-by-play era by a pretty wide margin …

Biggest difference, points allowed per 100 possessions vs. league average

Season

Team

DefRtg

Rank

Lg. avg.

Diff.

2024-25

Oklahoma City

102.7

1

112.5

-9.8

2003-04

San Antonio

93.1

1

101.4

-8.3

2007-08

Boston

98.1

1

106.2

-8.1

2019-20

Milwaukee

102.5

1

110.1

-7.6

2003-04

Detroit

93.9

2

101.4

-7.5

Through Jan. 7, 2025

The Cavs are the second-best offensive team of the last 29 seasons by the same measure (points scored per 100 possessions vs. the league average), so they will be the toughest test the Thunder defense has faced all season.

But Oklahoma City is currently 9-3 against the other eight teams that rank in the top 10 offensively, allowing just 106.4 points per 100 possessions over those 12 games. Their win over the second-ranked Celtics on Sunday was Boston’s worst offensive performance of the season (92 points on 97 possessions) by a wide margin.

2. Turning teams over

The success of the Thunder’s defense starts with not allowing their opponents to shoot. They’ve forced 18.7 turnovers per 100 possessions, the highest opponent rate in the last 26 seasons.

Sixty-three percent of their opponents’ turnovers have been live balls. That’s the league’s second-highest opponent live-ball rate and it results in more transition opportunities for the Thunder themselves. They’re the only team that ranks in the top five in both transition points scored per game (fourth) and (fewest) transition points allowed per game (second), according to Synergy tracking.

The Thunder have three players in the top six in steals per game (1.8 or more), and that doesn’t count Alex Caruso (1.9 per game), who’s played in only 20 games. It also doesn’t include Kenrich Williams, who ranks 15th in deflections per 36 minutes (4.5) among 326 players who’ve played at least 250 minutes.

This team has multiple Kawhi Leonards, meaning players who will just rip the ball out of your hands. But the Thunder also just don’t give up on plays. If you think you’ve got them beat on a cut, you’re probably wrong …

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be the best guard in the league at getting around bigs in the post to deflect entry passes. Lu Dort is a tireless defender who stays in pursuit with active hands.

If one player leaves his man to swarm the ball, another has his back …

The Thunder’s defense is relentless.

3. Yielding a lot of 3s … that don’t go in

When opponents have managed to hold onto the ball and get a shot off, they haven’t shot very well. The Thunder lead the league in opponent effective field goal percentage (49.9%), ranking second in the paint (52.8%) and first on shots from outside the paint (47.6%).

There may be some luck with that latter number. The Thunder don’t just yield a lot of 3-pointers, they yield the best 3-pointers …

To date, 44.9% of their opponents’ shots have come from 3-point range. That’s the league’s highest opponent rate.Additionally, 29.2% of their opponents’ 3-point attempts have come from the corners. That’s the league’s third-highest opponent rate.According to Second Spectrum tracking, 75% of their opponents’ 3-point attempts have been off the catch, a rate well above the league average (70%).

Yielding a lot of corner and/or catch-and-shoot 3-pointers can certainly be a symptom of an aggressive defense. If the offense can beat the pressure, traps and overloads, open shots can be found on the weak side of the floor.

But the shots aren’t that open. According to Second Spectrum, 49% of the Thunder’s opponents’ 3-point attempts have been wide open. That seems like a high rate, but it’s a little below the league average (50%).

An aggressive defense can make opponents rush your shots, even if they’re uncontested. The Thunder are happy to leave certain shooters wide open …

Still, opponents have shot just 32.7% from 3-point range against the Thunder. That would be the lowest opponent mark in the last eight seasons.

The quality of the paint defense shouldn’t be overlooked, especially with the Thunder missing their best rim protector (Chet Holmgren) for the last 25 games. But it’s fair to believe that they’ve been a little lucky regarding how poorly their opponents have shot from beyond the arc.

4. The offense is good and could (should?) get better

The Thunder have taken better care of the ball this season. They lead the league in turnover rate on both ends of the floor. With that, their turnover differential (6.9 fewer per game than their opponents) would be the best differential (by a wide margin) in the 48 seasons that turnovers have been tracked.

But, though they rank eighth offensively overall, the Thunder haven’t been as good on offense as last season. They’ve seen the league’s second-biggest drop in effective field goal percentage and its third-biggest drop in free throw rate.

Gilgeous-Alexander has turned the ball over more than he did last season but has scored slightly more efficiently (true shooting percentage of 63.7%). The offense has also seen a much bigger drop-off in his minutes off the floor than with him on the floor.

The Thunder have scored 16.5 more points per 100 possessions with their Kia MVP candidate on the floor (118.5 per 100) than they have with him off it (102.0 per 100). That’s the third biggest on-off differential on offense among players who’ve played at least 500 minutes.

That off-court number includes a mark of 106.2 points scored per 100 possessions in 365 minutes where Jalen Williams has been on the floor without Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams is a potential All-Star, but he’s seen a big drop-off in efficiency, registering a true shooting percentage of 55.8%, a mark below the league average (57.4%) and down from 62.1% last season. He’s seen big drops in 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and free throw percentage.

The Thunder have also been without Holmgren, who ranked 15th in true shooting percentage (63.2%, right behind Gilgeous-Alexander) among 174 players with at least 500 field goal attempts last season.

Even if the defense isn’t quite as good going forward as it’s been thus far, the Thunder can improve on the other end of the floor if Holmgren returns and if Williams returns to form.

Oh, they also have plenty of assets with which to make a trade that upgrades their fifth starter.

With a historically good defense and room for improvement for an offense that’s already in the top 10, the Thunder are the clear favorite to win the Western Conference.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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